Saturday, December 21, 2013

Rates Unchanged - RBI's Dec'13 Policy Review



Well any central bank has the onus of regulating the money supply in the economy keeping a tab on the inflation. But somehow I fail to understand that, how can one tame inflation by inflation? By increasing rates the household budgets are inflated immediately. How can one tame inflation by just increasing the interest rates?

Simply stated, when RBI decides to increase rates, it tries to restrict the money supply in the economy, by making it more expensive to borrow, and thereby anticipating that the inflation will come down in prospect.

But food inflation does not exist due to excessive money supply. People don’t necessarily take loans to buy food articles, THINK! Food inflation occurs primarily due to non-existent infrastructure in the farm-to-fork logistics chain. Food inflation may also be caused due to illegal hoarding, as was seen recently in the case of onions, or due to unruly weather. The RBI can’t fight food inflation by snowballing rates. It has got only policy rates to play around with, and nothing much as a firearm to control inflation.